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How long will E&P be the fundamental driver to support the energy business?

The first 20% of the full text of this article appears below.

Out of all uncertainties in the world, we have one certainty: The petroleum era will end. It may take several decades or perhaps centuries to end, but certainly it will end. Companies, governments, and academia have proposed many solutions for the energy equation but most of them, like nuclear-based sources, will require large investments and time to technologically mature to become economically feasible, perhaps 20 or 50 years.

In the meantime, the energy-starving economies will need other solutions such as GTL, coal, LNG, etc. Despite the efforts of different actors on developing viable renewable-energy technologies, most of the relevant solutions are still based on fossil hydrocarbon concentrates such as oil and gas. In other words, an economically feasible non-hydrocarbon-dependent solution to the energy problem has yet to materialize. Thus, exploration and production for oil and gas will keep playing the role as the driving engine for energy needs of the world economy for many years to come, by replacing reserves and increasing production. The challenge for the E&P companies is, and will continue to be, keeping the economic cost of finding and producing hydrocarbon supplies within the lower quartile, as well as carrying out the activity in an environmentally friendly manner.

"Like it or not, the fossils aren't dead yet. While waiting for a miracle fuel, we must learn how to burn hydrocarbons more cleanly." Former British energy minister, Brian Wilson, wrote this statement just after participating in the OPEC International Seminar in Vienna, in September 2004 (The Observer, 2004). This statement summarizes very well what global energy is about and will be for the decades to come.

	World primary energy demand

 
The International Energy Agency (IEA) provided the data shown in Figure 1 (Gaghen, 2003) which illustrates 60 years of world energy demand with an outlook up to 2030.

View larger version (48K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Figure 1. World primary . . . [Full Text of this Article]