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Avalanche forecasting

Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado, U.S.

Dale Atkins

Colorado Avalanche Information Center, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.

Corresponding author: tkyoung@mines.edu

The first 20% of the full text of this article appears below.

The term geohazard encompasses natural occurrences such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, rockslides, mudslides, and snow avalanches that pose threats to people and property. Geophysicists monitor earth systems that generate these hazards and work with the general public to mitigate their effects. In the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, avalanches are of particular interest.

Traditionally, avalanche forecasting is an art based on experience and intuition. Decisions are driven by data and also by subjective memories and interpretations. Objective, computer-based procedures can be valuable tools for enhancing the efforts of forecasters to protect people and property and to save money caused by avalanche delays. Colorado School of Mines (CSM) is assisting the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) by developing computer-based aids to improve avalanche forecasting along Colorado's mountain highways. In this article we introduce avalanches as a geohazard and discuss problems associated with forecasting avalanches and potential benefits of using computer-based aids.

During winter months, snow avalanches pose a potential threat to people who work, recreate, or travel in mountainous areas. The historical record of avalanche activity includes:

• Hannibal likely lost many men and elephants to avalanches while crossing the Alps. Napoleon also probably suffered avalanche-related losses.
  
• Avalanches have acted as weapons in war. In WWI an estimated 40 000–80 000 people were killed by avalanches.
  
• The worst avalanche disaster occurred in 1970 in Yungay, Peru; 20 000 people were killed.
  
• Other contemporary disasters occurred in Turkey (1992), 284 killed; Iceland (1995); Europe (1999).
  

The cover of this issue of TLE shows an avalanche in progress on a slide path known as "Battleship" at Red Mountain Pass in southwestern Colorado. This avalanche area is a modern-day hazard to traffic along U.S. Highway 550 that runs through the San Juan Mountains, connecting the towns of Durango, Silverton, and Ouray.

	Statistics

 
During the 15 winters from . . . [Full Text of this Article]